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Neil R Ericsson

Neil R. Ericsson is a staff economist in the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC.

Titles by This Editor

Historically, the theory of forecasting that underpinned actual practice in economics has been based on two key assumptions?-that the model was a good representation of the economy and that the structure of the economy would remain relatively unchanged. In reality, forecast models are mis-specified, the economy is subject to unanticipated shifts, and the failure to make accurate predictions is relatively common.