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Roger Guesnerie

Roger Guesnerie is Professor at the Collège de France and President of the Paris School of Economics. He is the author of Assessing Rational Expectations and Assessing Rational Expectations 2 (MIT Press, 2001, 2005).

Titles by This Author

"Eductive" Stability in Economics

The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations, which dealt with the questions raised by multiplicity and its implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. This second volume emphasizes "eductive" learning: relying on careful reasoning, agents must deduce what other agents guess, a process that differs from the standard evolutionary learning experience in which agents make decisions about the future based on past experiences. A broad "eductive" stability test is proposed that includes common knowledge and results in a unique "rationalizable expectations equilibrium." This test provides the basis for Guesnerie's theoretical assessment of the plausibility of the REH's expectational coordination, emphasizing, for different categories of economic models, conditions for the REH's success or failure.

Guesnerie begins by presenting the concepts and methods of the eductive stability analysis in selected partial equilibrium models. He then explores to what extent general equilibrium strategic complementarities interfere with partial equilibrium considerations in the formation of stable expectations. Guesnerie next examines two issues relating to eductive stability in financial market models, speculation and asymmetric price information. The dynamic settings of an infinite horizon model are then taken up, and particular standard and generalized saddle-path solutions are scrutinized. Guesnerie concludes with a review of general questions and some "cautious" remarks on the policy implications of his analysis.

Titles by This Editor

Debates over post-Kyoto Protocol climate change policy often take note of two issues: the feasibility and desirability of international cooperation on climate change policies, given the failure of the United States to ratify Kyoto and the very limited involvement of developing countries, and the optimal timing of climate policies. In this book essays by leading international economists offer insights on both these concerns.

The book first considers the appropriate institutions for effective international cooperation on climate change, proposing an alternative to the Kyoto arrangement and a theoretical framework for such a scheme. The discussions then turn to the stability of international environmental agreements, emphasizing the logic of coalition forming and demonstrating the applicability of game-theoretical analysis. Finally, contributors address both practical and quantitative aspects of policy design, offering theoretical analyses of such specific policy issues as intertemporal carbon trade and implementation of a sequestration policy, and then by formal mathematical models examining policies related to the rate of climate change, international trade and carbon leakage, and the shortcomings of the standard Global Warming Potential index.

Contributors: Philippe Ambrosi, David F. Bradford, Barbara Buchner, Carlo Carraro, Parkash Chander, Stéphane De Cara, Damien Demailly, A. Denny Ellerman, Johan Eyckmans, Michael Finus, Elodie Galko, Roger Guesnerie, Jean-Charles Hourcade, Pierre-Alain Jayet, Gilles Lafforgue, Bernard Magné, Sandrine Mathy, Michel Moreaux, Sushama Murty, William A. Pizer, Philippe Quirion, Katrin Rehdanz, P. R. Shukla, Jaemin Song, Ian Sue Wing, Sylvie Thoron, Richard S. J. Tol, Henry Tulkens.

CESifo Seminar series